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Fundamentals: Rate probabilities

Read what the market expects from the next central-bank rate decision, and use it as macro context.

What the Rates tab shows

The Rates tab on the Fundamentals page shows the market-implied odds for upcoming central-bank rate decisions. It reads what the market is pricing right now, so you can see whether traders expect a hold, a hike, or a cut before the meeting lands. These are market-implied odds, not a forecast from the team, and each read is dated so you know how fresh it is.


Five central banks are covered: Fed, ECB, BoE, RBA, and BoJ. Pick one from the strip at the top and the whole view updates to that bank.


Fundamentals: Rate probabilities, screenshot 1


Reading the next-decision read

Four summary cards sit under the strip and give you the read at a glance:

  • NEXT DECISION: how far away the next meeting is, with the date.

  • NEXT MOVE: the most likely outcome for that meeting, shown as Hold, Hike, or Cut, with the size and the odds beside it (for example "24% hike").

  • CURRENT RATE: where the rate sits today.

  • 12-MONTH OUTLOOK: the cumulative move the market is pricing over the year ahead, phrased plainly as something like "1 or 2 hikes".

Below the cards, each upcoming meeting gets its own card with the most likely outcome, the odds, a split bar showing the balance of cut, hold, and hike, and the implied rate. The IMPLIED RATE PATH chart to the side traces where the market thinks the rate is heading across the coming meetings.


Switch between views

Use the toggle in the header to change how the same odds are laid out:

  • Cards: one card per meeting, easiest to scan.

  • Heatmap: a grid of rate targets against meeting dates, with the odds shaded by likelihood so a probable target stands out.

  • Table: the numbers in full, with the implied rate, the chance of a move, the number of moves priced, and the change versus today for every meeting.

Fundamentals: Rate probabilities, screenshot 2


Use it as macro context

The Rates tab is macro backdrop for the pairs and instruments you trade. A decision that the market sees as a coin flip is a different setup from one that is all but priced in, and knowing which is which helps you read the days around the meeting. For the Fed, a YOUR FED-DAY RECORD panel sits beside the chart and shows how your own trades on Fed decision days have gone, with your Win rate, Avg P&L, and Net on Fed days next to your overall numbers, so you can see whether these days suit your style.


Remember that further-dated meetings carry more uncertainty, and that everything here reflects what the market is pricing, not a call the team is making.

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